Thursday, January 29, 2015

3 Best Activist Campaigns of 2013

Photo by: Benno Hanson.

I have a special place in my heart for the activist investor. The media often give them a bad rap, but activists play an important role in making big, quick changes in America's biggest companies.

So, with that said, I wanted to look back at the three best activist campaigns this year to highlight how activist investors can work for the good of all shareholders.

1. A fruity concoction
At the top of this year's list is Carl Icahn's stab at Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) . By now, every investor knows that Apple has a boatload of cash -- some $40.5 billion in cash plus more than $106 billion of other investments.

Growing corporate cash hoards are a real problem for investors across the board. Too much cash threatens long-run stock returns, since cash and debt investments simply do not provide the same return as equities -- ownership of a business.

Most laudable is Icahn's demand for speed. Apple has a buyback and dividend plan in place, but Icahn wanted it done immediately. He suggested Apple borrow against its cash and investments held overseas to make big buybacks spanning a single year.

By and large, the debate is mostly over. Apple will return as much as $100 billion to shareholders by 2015, with the bulk coming in the form of share repurchases. David Einhorn deserves a mention, too, for his suit against Apple, and subsequent plan for Apple preferred stock, which kicked off a universal discussion about the iPhone maker's massive cash stash.

2. An automated return of capital
Remember Redbox? While Outerwall (NASDAQ: OUTR  ) , formerly Coinstar, isn't necessarily a stock that gets widespread attention, it makes frequent appearances in value investing and activist circles.

Outerwall underwent a name change to enact a new strategy: Make every product under the sun available in automated kiosks, from coffee to sandwiches. Unfortunately, few of its new initiatives could stand up to its Redbox and Coinstar machines in profitability.

That's when Jana Partners entered the fray. The activist group acquired a 13.5% stake, pushing Outerwall to return cash to shareholders instead of investing in new, mostly unproven, vending businesses. The company has since approved a $100 million buyback, tossed its new ventures out the window, and had its president "step down." Not to mention, shares have surged since Jana announced its position.

OUTR Chart

What's most important here is that an outside activist group was capable of ending a new ventures program that existed mostly as a jobs program for management.

Redbox won't last forever -- DVDs, BluRay disks, and physical media are dying a slow death. Outerwall had two choices: enjoy the money while it lasts, or throw cash at new attempts to recreate Redbox's success. Jana said "no go" to new concepts; shareholders should take the money and run.

3. A political mess
Bruce Berkowitz was successful in bringing AIG back to private hands, but a new effort to privatize Fannie Mae (NASDAQOTCBB: FNMA  ) and Freddie Mac  (NASDAQOTCBB: FMCC  )  may be his biggest campaign ever.

The plan had to be on this list for the sheer complexity and difficulty of actually getting this deal done. Berkowitz will have to convince the government to give up a cash cow -- two companies that have given the government more than $100 billion in 2013 alone.

I still think this deal is a long shot, and so does the rest of the market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred stock is essentially priced as if this is a 5-to-1 event. These are long odds, indeed.

And it won't be easy for political reasons. Lawmakers have little desire to give up deficit-busting, profitable mortgage companies. The president has spoken negatively about giving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to shareholders. And Congress routinely bickers back and forth about who exactly should insure America's trillion-dollar mortgage industry.

If Berkowitz strikes gold in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a future Foolish article from the year 2100 should name him activist of the century.

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Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Gold Prices Are Still Down: Here’s Why

Gold prices are the honey badger of precious metals right now.

As 2011's very popular YouTube video showed us, the honey badger makes moves that don't make sense - it "don't care."

And neither does gold.

Like the honey badger, gold prices just don't seem to care that the world has teetered on the brink of destruction all year. They just keep heading lower.

Gold prices have been trending down for most of this year. On Jan. 2, the London spot price was $1,693.75 per ounce. As of this writing, the last bid was $1,286.88, a loss of 24%.

In the meantime, the civil war in Syria escalated, at times threatening to engulf the Middle East in flames. The U.S. government shut down for two weeks, threatening countless visits to National Parks. The world seems to have moved from crisis to crisis without pausing for breath.

And there's been inflation. The American Institute for Economic Research's (AIER) Everyday Prices Index (EPI), a measure of inflation tied to prices of consumer staples, shows a 2.5% increase since January, more than double the Consumer Price Index's 1.1%.

Furthermore, the U.S. Federal Reserve's lead foot on quantitative easing keeps the possibility of a global currency crisis on the table.

Crisis and inflation historically drive gold prices up. That's one of the reasons we here at Money Morning still think gold is an essential piece of any portfolio. We've had both over the last year, but the price of gold has continued to move lower, month after month, apart from a brief run this summer.

The reasons for gold's continued fall, in spite of the apparent decay of the world, just might surprise you...

Gold Is Heavy, but Macroeconomics Is Heavier

As it happens, there have been quite a few factors that have been weighing gold down, according to Money Morning Global Resources Specialist Peter Krauth.

"Gold is still in the bottoming process that started in April," said Krauth.

The price, said Krauth, "reflects a few things. First, there's the European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut, which strengthened the dollar on a relative basis. A strong dollar means less demand for gold. The second thing is the 2.8% economic growth reported for Q3, which is up from the original estimate of 2.5%."

Combine that with a stronger-than-expected jobs report and "Investors start thinking - perhaps erroneously - that the Fed will start seriously considering tapering sooner than March 2014."

Statements from the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) have indicated that tapering - the process of ending quantitative easing - would only start if the economy showed signs of strengthening. Better-than-expected gross domestic product and payroll growth do, typically, indicate economic strength.

Tapering would involve increasing interest rates. Traditionally, rising interest rates leads investors to pull out of gold in search of better yield. This, naturally, sends gold prices lower.

One traditional price support for gold is also missing, says Krauth.

Around this time of year, there is usually a spike in gold prices as India prepares for the Hindu festival of Diwali. According to The Wall Street Journal, Indians have purchased half as much gold as they bought a year ago. This was largely due to government efforts to contain India's current-account deficit by imposing a 10% tariff on gold imports.

"I believe the import restrictions and taxes, causing restricted supply and higher prices, have undeniably dented Indian gold demand, providing no support for gold prices," Krauth says.

There's more to the Indian gold situation, however, than meets the eye. On Monday, Peter will reveal an incisive report explaining why one of the world's largest countries is sitting pretty, even without imports of its favorite metal.

In the meantime, just because prices for gold are low now, doesn't mean they'll stay low forever. The fundamental reasons for owning gold are still in play, and here's why they'll start to play out next year.

Related Articles:

The Wall Street Journal:
India's Gold Demand Fell By Half Ahead of Diwali This Year AIER:
Lower Fuel Prices Pull Everyday Prices Down

Monday, January 26, 2015

Average 30-year mortgage rate dips to 4.3%

Average mortgage rates are falling again, a trend that could counteract signs of lower home sales in the next few months.

The average 30-year fixed-rate home loan rate dropped to 4.32% this week, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday. That's down from 4.5% in last week's Freddie Mac survey, and below a peak of 4.58% last month.

The average 15-year fixed rate fell to 3.37% from 3.54% a week ago, Freddie Mac reported.

Interest rates have fallen since the Federal Reserve said Sept. 18 it would continue its $85 billion in monthly bond buying, which is aimed at keeping rates down for consumers and businesses.

Before that announcement, rates had risen more than a full percentage point since early May when markets began speculating on the Fed easing its bond purchases this fall.

Rates are likely to fall below 4%, said Chris Flanagan, head of mortgage research for Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The higher interest rates in effect over the summer are believed to helped home sales, spurring buyers to close deals and beat further rate increases. August's existing home sales were the highest in six and a half years, the National Realtors Association says.

But newer data is mixed on whether those higher rates are holding some buyers back.

The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that contracts to buy and sell existing homes dropped 1.6% in August, the third straight monthly decline in its pending home sales index. The index is designed as an indicator of future sales, which are typically finalized a month or two after contracts are signed.

But the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly reports have noted a pickup in new applications for loans tied to home sales, which the trade group reports separately from refinancing loans.

The Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday reported a 7% increase in purchase-money applications last week, following a 3% jump the week before.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

3 Things Everyone Should Do Before Applying for a Mortgage

Businessman and clients talking at deskAlamy My wife and I are just starting the journey of buying our first home together. We're both excited and nervous, because a lot can and does go wrong. One of the first steps I took was to figure out exactly how much house we could comfortably afford to buy. While there are a variety of affordability calculators out there, I wanted to get pre-approved before we ventured out to find our dream home. Turns out, the fact that we don't plan on moving until next summer made it too early to consider getting pre-approved. That said, the effort wasn't completely wasted. I learned three things that every prospective home buyer should know in order get their house in order, so to speak -- things that will make for a smooth process when applying for a loan. 1. Get Your Credit House in Order Home buyers need to do everything in their power to boost their credit score before applying for a mortgage. This means paying down credit cards and making sure your credit is as squeaky clean as you can get it. It's a good idea to check out your credit reports well in advance of applying for a loan to make sure there are no issues you need to address. You can pull reports from all three major bureaus for free at annualcreditreport.com. (Everyone whose income is going to be considered in qualifying for the loan needs to do this.) If there are any issues, start fixing them immediately. Some red marks -- even if they are due to inaccurate reporting and not because of your bad credit management -- can take a while to clean up. When I pulled my credit report I was pleased to find that my credit score is still in healthy shape. However, it could be better. I have too many accounts carrying balances. To get my credit house in order, I plan on paying off the one card that's holding a balance from our last vacation, despite the fact that it charges zero percent interest. 2. Protect Your Credit Reputation Once your credit house is in order, protect it. According to John Laymac of CBC National Bank, there are several things we can do between now and when we buy our new home: "Do not let anyone pull your credit, pay everything on time, do not close any accounts you may pay down to zero, do not apply for any new credit (besides the mortgage), do not buy a car, do not make other large purchases on credit and do not carry a balance on any revolving account that is more than 25 percent of the card's limit. Use a mix of cards if you have more than one and pay the balance off or below 25 percent of the limit when the bill arrives." That pretty much sums up what you need to do to avoid accidentally dinging your own credit before you start shopping for a loan. What's probably most surprising is that closing accounts or paying off a term loan are actually a very bad idea, especially before applying for a mortgage. Closing a major credit card can actually do damage to a credit score. Lenders look at the balance on revolving credit accounts in terms of its ratio to total available credit. Closing an account can have the unintended consequence of raising the ratio. Paying off a car is the same story; lenders want to see a long-term credit history. So, it's actually better to put any extra money toward a down payment rather than paying off the car. One other thing Laymac recommended we do is go to OptOutPrescreen.com and register to electronically opt out of electronic offers (spam and junk mail) of credit for five years. He said that "this is similar to the do-not-call list and the credit bureaus see it as a positive." Bottom line: Prospective homeowners should do all they can to protect their credit before applying for a mortgage. 3. Open a Separate Account to Hold Your Down Payment Funds It goes without saying that a new homebuyer will be forking over money, and lots of it, at the closing. What you might not know is that the funds set aside for a down payment and closing costs shouldn't be kept under the mattress, nor should those funds be in your main checking account. Instead, homebuyers should open a separate account specifically for the down payment. I asked Laymac to explain why the separate account, and he said: "To avoid delays, establish a dedicated account for the down payment and closing costs and have all transfers into that account final at least 60 days before you start the process. Any non-payroll deposits into asset accounts must be explained in detail and any cash deposits can cause a loan to be declined. Banks typically only ask to see the two most recent months of account statements, so transactions prior to two months are not scrutinized. If you have no transactions in the account over two statements, there is nothing to explain and no additional documentation to provide." So, sell that stock or get grandma to send the Christmas money early. (If a money gift comes in later, you may have to provide your lender with a note from the gift giver stating that the money was a gift and no repayment is expected.) Then sock it away in a separate account that has been designated for the down payment. Final Thoughts Following these three steps should make the mortgage application process less painful and intrusive. Buying a house comes with enough issues of its own, so why complicate matters with a mortgage mishap? With the subprime mortgage mess unfolding all around us, there's never been a better time to make sure you make the right mortgage decision.Of course, no single loan is best for all circumstances, but the following eight loan types work better than most when matched to your individual situation and lifestyle. Next: For the Long Haul Make a Mortgage Match Loan to consider: 30-year fixed rate Why: Financial peace of mind can be worth the higher interest rate that won't change for three decades.Next: Refinancing For the Long Haul (15-20 yrs before retiring)Loan to consider: 15- or 20-year fixed or ARM Why: You can retire the loan before you retire from your job. A fixed rate generally costs more than an adjustable, but will give you more certainty in budgeting. However, if ARMs are a lot cheaper and your income can handle possible payment increases, you could save with the adjustable rate.Next: Recent Graduate Refinancing (With strong potential for increased earnings)Loan to consider: 1-year ARM Why: Stretch your dollars with low interest rates during the years when your income is at its leanest. Your rate can go up (or down) each year, but rate caps will limit that change to a predictable amount, and your rising income should be able to handle it. Watch out for loans that cap your payment instead of your rate. They could cause your indebtedness to grow. Next: Self-Employed Recent Graduate Loan to consider: No- or low-documentation loanWhy: Though you'll pay a higher interest rate, not having to produce paycheck stubs or employer references, as you would be expected to supply when applying for a traditional loan, can be a huge help to those with variable incomes.Next: 4-5 Year Plan Self-Employed Loan to consider: A 5/25 hybrid loan Why: If you won't keep the loan longer than five years, why pay extra to lock in an interest rate for a longer period? If you do end up staying longer, you can either refinance or live with an interest rate that adjusts every year.Next: Good Income, but ... Planning to Live in Home for 4-5 Years Loan to consider: Option ARM Why: With these very risky loans designed for people with incomes that vary monthly, each month you have a choice of payments: the full amount needed to pay off principal and interest, an amount that covers only the interest, or an even smaller amount that doesn't even cover interest owed. Over time, however, your required payments could rise significantly if you often choose the smaller payments.Next: Job Relocation Good, Varying Income (With good income, savings)Loan to consider: Interest-only Why: While these loans can be risky for novice borrowers or those stretching to afford a home, they can be a smart tool for savvy borrowers who already have assets built up. Monthly payments are low because you're not repaying principal, so you can afford a larger loan. If you sell the home for less than you paid, however, you have to come up with the difference.Next: Military or Veteran Job Relocation for a Short Run Loan to consider: VA loan Why: The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs offers loan guarantees that allow qualified military personnel and veterans to take out mortgages for as much as $417,000 with zero down payment. In Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands, that loan amount goes up to $625,000.Next: More on Mortgages Active Duty Military or Veteran ' Your Credit & Mortgage Rates' Three Steps to the Best Loan' Five Types of Mortgages' Finding a Mortgage Lender' Five Mortgage Mess-Ups' Mortgage Contract Surprises' Refinancing Exotic Mortgages' The Problem: Option ARM Bankrate on Mortgages Get more information on finding, choosing and financing your next place to live:Great Places to LiveBest Cities for Each Life StageMost Affordable Suburbs Latest Money News & Features More on AOL

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Why Ellie Mae's Earnings Are Outstanding

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Ellie Mae (NYSE: ELLI  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Ellie Mae generated $25.1 million cash while it booked net income of $19.7 million. That means it turned 22.4% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds pretty impressive.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Ellie Mae look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 20.9% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Ellie Mae investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 22.4% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 25.6% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Software and computerized services are being consumed in radically different ways, on new and increasingly mobile devices. Many old leaders will be left behind. Whether or not Ellie Mae makes the coming cut, you should check out the company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead the pack in "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Ellie Mae to My Watchlist.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

If You Hear Calls for a Market Crash, Don't Panic... Read This

There's big news going around the Stansberry & Associates office this month...   In his latest issue, our colleague Porter Stansberry told readers of his research service to prepare for a major market decline.   Porter believes all the borrowing and money printing going on at the world's central banks will produce a crisis that upends the currency, bond, and stock markets.   He's urging his readers to sell many (but not all) of their stock positions.   Porter is one of the most widely followed investment analysts in America... and he has a good track record with big market calls like this.   So what should you do about it?    If you're a trader, you should be focused on limiting risk first and maximizing profits second. So it's worth thinking about how you would handle the kind of scenario Porter sees coming.   Fortunately, there's a very simple, safe plan available...   You let the market decide.   As we often say in our DailyWealth Trader service, the market is the judge, jury, and executioner of every trade. That's why we use predetermined stop prices on all our positions. If a stock we're following declines by a set amount, we exit the trade. If it doesn't... we can continue collecting profits.   We've seen both scenarios at work this year.    Back in October, for example we recommended oil-services firm C&J Energy Services (NYSE: CJES). After our write-up, the stock jumped from about $19 to $25.   When you see a big, fast gain like that, it's a good idea to take steps to protect it. So we suggested tightening the stop loss on the trade...   C&J Energy Services (CJES) Hits Its Stop   We moved closer to the exit... and then the market told us it was time to go. While C&J's share price completed a "round trip" back down into the high teens this spring, readers who followed our advice walked away with a 17% gain.    It doesn't always work that way, of course. Our readers bought shares of drugstore giant Walgreens (WAG) in early 2012. By February of this year, the position was showing a 33% gain. And we suggested tightening the stop loss.   Walgreens (WAG) Has Not Yet Hit Its Stop   Afterward, shares marched higher. Even after the recent market weakness, they're a chip-shot away from a new all-time high. Our readers can continue to make gains here until the market tells them otherwise.    The S&P 500 ran up as much as 23% from its November bottom. In other words, the market packed two years' worth of gains into a matter of months. And many stocks soared to new all-time highs.   That was a "gift from the market gods." So if you're sitting on big gains today, it's a good idea to take steps to protect them. Consider tightening up your stops.    We can't say whether the crisis Porter predicts is around the corner. Nobody can. It could be six months away... two years away... or not there at all.   Fortunately, you don't have to guess or predict. You can stay long your winning trades... and benefit if there's more upside... and use exit strategies that will protect your profits and capital if a downtrend occurs.   If you've planned the trades, all you need to do is trade the plan.   – Amber Lee Mason and Brian Hunt



The 2 Stocks Leading the Dow's Surge

Following a positive jobs report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is up 157 points, or 1.05%, to 15,198 as of 1:25 p.m. EDT. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) is up 0.92% to 1,637.

There were two U.S. economic releases today.

Report

Period

Actual

Previous

Non-farm payrolls

May

175,000

149,000

Unemployment rate

May

7.6%

7.5%

Investors were worried about the jobs report after Wednesday's private-sector payrolls report disappointed and depressed Dow stocks. The government's nonfarm payroll report showed that the economy added 175,000 jobs in May, beating expectations of 164,000 additional jobs.

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Chart

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls data by YCharts.

The jump in job creation was not enough to stop a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.6%, but that uptick was the result of more people entering the labor market. This is positive for the economy, as it means more people feel they can find a job. And a higher unemployment rate is good for asset prices, because it means the Fed will keep up its asset purchases. Currently, the Federal Reserve is buying $85 billion of long-term assets every month -- $45 billion of long-term Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. The Fed has said that it will continue the purchases until inflation rises above 2% or unemployment falls below 6.5%. Inflation is currently running around 1%, and expectations for inflation going forward, per the TIPS spread -- the difference between the yields on Treasury Inflation Protection Securities and the nominal U.S. Treasury bond yield -- is 2% for the next five years. 

Today's Dow leaders
American Express (NYSE: AXP  ) is among today's Dow outperformers, up 2%. More employed Americans and more people looking for work should mean more spending going forward, which is a good trend for American Express. American Express benefits doubly from the economy strengthening as it means less bad debt. Unlike Visa and Mastercard which only process transactions and rely on banks to lend credit, American Express lends its own money to its members. It therefore is incentivized to not only have customers make transactions but to make sure they can make good on those transactions. 

Also flying high today is Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) , up 2.2%. Earlier today Boeing stock hit a 52-week high of $102.25. Boeing is up 30% since March, when it looked like the company had solved the issues with the batteries of its Dreamliner aircraft. If you recall, the Dreamliner was grounded in January by the FAA due to problems with its lithium battery. Now that the problem has been solved, Boeing can resume deliveries of the Dreamliner to. Boeing has also been making news on some other fronts. So far this month the company has won two contracts from the Pentagon that, while small, sow the seeds for potentially massive new opportunities in the future.

Boeing is a major player in a multitrillion-dollar market in which the opportunities are massive. However, emerging competitors and the company's execution problems have investors wondering whether Boeing will live up to its shareholder responsibilities. In our premium research report on the company, two of The Motley Fool's best minds on industrials have collaborated to provide investors with the must-know info on Boeing. They'll be updating the report as key news hits, so don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Apple's CEO Should Leave Nike's Boardroom

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) CEO Tim Cook is once again dodging questions about wearable computing beyond calling it an area of "incredible interest" for his company. However, he had no problem showing off Nike's (NYSE: NKE  ) FuelBand that he has been wearing since early last year. Cook even sits on Nike's board.

In this video, longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz argues that Cook's presence on Nike's board may be creating a conflict of interest when it comes to wearable computing. Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Eric Schmidt left Apple when he rightfully sensed a growing conflict of interest between the two tech titans. It could be time for Cook to follow suit with Nike's boardroom.

Got Apple? Get smart.
There's a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple, and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Deere: Short Covering, Not Fundamentals Drive Bounce

Deere (DE) has bounced 4.7% this week–but JPMorgan’s Ann Duignan warns that its strength has little to do with changing fundamentals and everything to do with short covering. She explains:

Andrew Mitchell for The Wall Street Journal

Deere’s stock was up 3.3% yesterday vs. S&P 500 up 0.2% as short covering began in earnest as several catalysts were thrown around during the course of the day. Catalysts included: 1) the notion that Section 179 has bi-partisan support and may be re-enacted in the near term (we disagree as a Republican Senate and House may mean permanent tax changes, a lengthy process); 2) corn has hit its seasonal low and futures
are improved since Friday's WASDE report (we agree though the weather is expected to improve and November WASDE usually sets the low); 3) Deere outperformed the industry in Brazil in September and the NA AEM data was better than expected—this combination may provide an upside surprise for Deere FQ4’14 earnings. In our view, the short covering may continue into the company's earnings report on November 26. However, the fundamentals have not improved, with wet weather in the Midwest
adding to farmer woes as the cost to dry the crop will rise, on top of everything else. We remain underweight Deer into its earnings release as FY'15 is likely to be challenging.

Shares of Deere have gained 0.5% to $84.71 at 10:38 a.m. today, while Agco (AGCO) has jumped 1.4% to $44.25.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Post-it note eating insider trader pleads guilty

post it note Who's hungry? Insider trader ate his Post-it notes after passing stock tips. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The middleman in a $5.6 million insider trading scheme has admitted to passing stock tips on Post-it notes and then eating the evidence.

Frank Tamayo, a 41-year-old Brooklyn man, surrendered Friday morning to the Federal Bureau of Investigation and pleaded guilty in Federal Court in New Jersey.

Prosecutors say Tamayo received information about upcoming corporate deals from Steven Metro, the head clerk at a corporate law firm in New York.

Tamayo then handed that information over to Vladimir Eydelman, a stock broker at Oppenheimer (OPY) and Morgan Stanley (MS). Eydelman in turn used it to trade stocks for Tamayo and other customers.

Metro and Eydelman were charged separately in March.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has filed civil charges against all three men.

In an awkward attempt to be stealthy, Tamayo would write a stock ticker on a piece of paper, usually a Post-it note or a napkin, which he would show to Eydelman, indicating that the stock was a buy.

Tamayo would then put the paper in his mouth "and chewed it until it was destroyed," according to prosecutors.

The information exchange between Tamayo, a mortgage broker, and Eydelman would take place at locations near his office, including a spot near the clock in New York City's Grand Central Station and a midtown coffee shop.

"Tamayo was the firewall between Metro and Eydelman," said Robert Cohen, an official with the Securities and Exchange Commission. "Metro had the information, Eydelman did the trading, and Tamayo kept them apart."

The scheme started in 2009, when Metro met Tamayo at a bar in New York City and started talking stocks over drinks. According to the SEC, Metro told Tamayo about a $500 million investment Liberty Media planned to make in SiriusXM, which prompted Tamayo to call Eydelman.

Over the next five years, Metro divulged information on at least 13 different deals that his firm, Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, was working on, including mergers and acquisitions.

Metro found potential inside tips by searching his firm's data base for keywords such as "merger agreement," "bid letter," "engagement letter," and "due diligence."

Eydelman also took steps to cover his tracks. The stock broker wou! ld send emails to Tamayo outlining his thoughts on why he recommended buying a particular stock. By sending emails that seemed part of his job and innocuous, prosecutors said, he hoped to leave a paper trail that created the appearance that the trade was based on legitimate research and not inside information.

Tamayo's attorney did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Fed Keeps Rates Low, but Brace for the Inevitable

Yellen Susan Walsh/APFederal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. WASHINGTON -- Record-low interest rates will be around for at least a few more months, the Federal Reserve made clear Wednesday. Enjoy the easy money while it lasts. By mid-2015, economists expect the Fed to abandon a nearly 6-year-old policy of keeping short-term rates at record lows. Those rates have helped support the economy, cheered the stock market and shrunk mortgage rates. A Fed rate increase could potentially reverse those trends. Mortgages could cost more. So could car loans. Investors could get squeezed. "Borrowers should see the writing on the wall," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. "Interest rates are eventually going to go up. They should pay down variable-rate debt and keep an eye on that adjustable-rate mortgage. They don't want to be caught flat-footed." Investors, in particular, might recall that mere speculation about the end of the Fed's stimulus shook global financial markets in May 2013. In coming months, as the prospect of higher rates nears, traders might once again dump stocks and bonds and send prices tumbling. Higher yields on bank accounts and CDs could provide some modest relief for savers and retirees who have struggled for years to get by on meager interest income. But any gains they receive could be diminished by the likelihood that inflation will be higher once the economy is strong enough for the Fed to end its ultra-low rate policy. Still, on Wednesday, Fed policymakers once again decided: Not yet. The central bank said it intends to keep its benchmark rate near zero as long as inflation remains under control, until it sees consistent gains in wage growth, long-term unemployment and other gauges of the job market. The Fed retained language signaling its plans to keep short-term rates low "for a considerable time" after it ends its monthly bond purchases after its next meeting in October. Stocks Soar The decision sent the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) to a record high Wednesday. And on Thursday, stocks extended their gains. The Dow rose 86 points in midmorning trading. "What we heard from the Fed today is really what investors like to hear," McBride said. "The stimulus isn't going to go away overnight." In its statement, the Fed said it will make another $10 billion cut in the pace of its Treasury and mortgage bond purchases, which have been intended to keep long-term borrowing rates low. "In the Fed's mind, the economy still has work to do, but it's improving," said Mike Arone, an investment strategist with State Street Global Advisors. The Fed also clarified the process by which it will eventually unwind its low-rate policies. The Fed said it would first raise its key short-term rate before it stops reinvesting its bond holdings, which have driven the Fed's balance sheet to a record of nearly $4.5 trillion. The central bank also issued updated forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates. The median short-term rate supported by Fed policymakers at the end of 2015 is now 1.38 percent, up from 1.13 percent at its June meeting. This suggested pressure from some Fed officials for a faster rate increase than the Fed's statement implied. The Fed also expects slower growth this year and next than in its last projections issued in June. It predicts that the economy will grow about 2.1 percent this year, down from its June forecast of roughly 2.2 percent. That reduction likely reflects the sharp contraction in the first quarter of this year. The economy has rebounded solidly since then. Keeping Rates Low On the eve of the Fed's meeting this week, the financial world had been on high alert for whether the Fed would reiterate that it expects to keep its key short-term rate near zero for a "considerable time" after the bond buying ends. With job growth solid, manufacturing and construction growing and unemployment at a near-normal 6.1 percent, many analysts had suggested that the Fed was edging closer to a rate increase to prevent a rising economy from igniting inflation. The number of U.S. job openings is near its highest level in 13 years. Layoffs have dwindled. And consumer confidence has reached its highest point in nearly seven years. Despite the signs of a stronger economy, most economists think the first increase in the Fed's short-term rate won't occur until mid-2015. The Fed's new statement retained language stating that a range of labor market indicators "suggests there remains significant underutilization of labor resources." Meeting with reporters after the Fed meeting, Chair Janet Yellen said she still thought the job market has yet to fully recover. "There are still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them, too many who are working part time but would prefer full-time work and too many who are not searching for a job but would be if the labor market were stronger," Yellen said. Minor Changes The Fed made only minor changes to its previous statement in its assessment of the economy. The statement was approved on an 8-2 vote. The dissents came from Charles Plosser, president of the Fed's Philadelphia regional bank, who had dissented at the last meeting, and Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas regional Fed bank. Both are viewed as "hawks" -- Fed officials who are most concerned about the threat of inflation and believe the Fed should be moving more quickly to raise rates. Asked at her news conference whether she had concerns about the dissents, Yellen noted that the committee had approved the policy statement by "an overwhelming majority, and I don't consider the level of dissent to be surprising or very abnormal." In response to another question, Yellen said it could take until the end of the decade to shrink the Fed's investment holdings to more normal levels. Before its policy announcement Wednesday afternoon, the Fed had received good news on inflation with a report that consumer prices fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in August, the first monthly drop in prices in 16 months. In August, U.S. employers added just 142,000 jobs, well below the 212,000 average of the previous 12 months. The slowdown was seen as likely temporary. But some analysts said it underscored that the economic outlook might remain too hazy for the Fed to signal an earlier-than-expected rate hike. -.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

3 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis. Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market today.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for a Correction Week

These "most active" names are the most heavily-traded names on the market -- and often, uber-active names have some sort of a technical or fundamental catalyst driving investors' attention on shares. And when there's a big catalyst, there's often a trading opportunity.

Without further ado, here's a look at today's stocks.

FedEx


Nearest Resistance: N/A

Nearest Support: $145

Catalyst: Q4 Earnings

Shipping giant FedEx (FDX) is up close to 5% this afternoon, buoyed by positive surprise in fourth-quarter profits. Analysts were expecting earnings of $2.36 per share, but FedEx actually earned $2.46 per share for the quarter.

Today's buying carries bigger consequences than just a post-earnings pop, however. The gap up at the open broke FDX up through long-term resistance at $145. Now FedEx is pressing up against new all-time highs.

This stock looks buyable here, particularly with a stop set at $137.50 support.

ConAgra Foods


Nearest Resistance: $31.50

Nearest Support: $28

Catalyst: Forecast Cut

ConAgra Foods (CAG) is off by 8% this afternoon, selling off after it announced that fourth-quarter earnings later this month would fall short of analysts' expectations. Now, the firm thinks it will report earnings of 55 cents per share, a 5-cent cut from the 60 cents CAG had previously forecast for Wall Street. Despite today's big selloff, shares could still have materially further to fall.

That's because CAG's selling broke shares down through the bottom of the trend line that's been propelling this packaged food stock higher since March. While shares are sitting on weak support at $30.25, a test of the more meaningful $28 price floor looks more likely. Buyer beware.

Adobe Systems


Nearest Resistance: N/A

Nearest Support: $70

Catalyst: Q2 Earnings

Software maker Adobe Systems (ADBE) is up more than 7% this afternoon, following the firm's second-quarter earnings release after the bell yesterday. Adobe earned 17 cents per share in profit last quarter, or 37 cents on an adjusted basis. Analysts were only expecting the adjusted number to come in at 29.8 cents on average. Growing adoption of the firm's Creative Cloud subscription model is getting credit for the earnings beat -- and the stock price jump. The recurring model indicates that Adobe's good fortunes could carry over into future periods as well.

Technically speaking, ADBE is breaking out today on the earnings surprise. Shares cleared a key resistance level at $70, making significant room to the upside for shares to rally.

Even if you missed today's move up, now is a good time to join the buyers.

To see these stocks in action, check out the at Most-Active Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.



-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for a Correction Week



>>Move In to Hedge Funds' 5 Favorite REITs This Summer



>>5 Retail Stocks to Trade for Gains in June

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in the names mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Four Reasons Tech Stocks Will Rebound in 2014

The year is nearly half over, and the mainstream media continues to obsess over a whipsaw stock market that's been cutting highflyers down to size.

The sullen outlook has lots of retail investors dumping tech stocks and running for the "safety" of the sidelines.

That's a mistake I'm urging you to avoid.

You see, I believe that stocks - and especially tech stocks - are poised to do very well in the last half of 2014. And that means the biggest losers will be the folks who cash out now.

This isn't just a wild guess on my part.

tech stocks

In particular, there are four reasons why tech stocks - and biotech stocks in particular - will do well in the final six months of the year. So today I'm going to show you why - before the midpoint hits - this is your best chance to position your portfolio... and cash in on that run.

My analysis shows that four specific catalysts will keep tech stocks moving for the rest of this year.

So let's jump right in...

Tech Stocks Catalyst No. 1: The Mobile Wave

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) trade group just reported that worldwide microchip sales reached $78.47 billion during the first quarter - the industry's highest-ever result for the first three months of a year. Sales for March were up 16.1% in the Americas, and 11.4% globally, on a year-over-year basis.

SEMI, the trade group representing the producers of chip-manufacturing gear, says equipment-makers signed $1.28 billion in orders in March, for a book-to-bill ratio of 1.06. That represents a year-over-year increase of 16.1%.

Because wireless devices are growing in sophistication and are using more and more chips in each unit, mobile products like smartphones, tablets, and "phablets" will be a big driver here. And it's a multiyear driver: Sales of mobile/wireless products will power forward for at least the next three years, says market forecaster IDC.

In fact, in a recent report, IDC estimated that global sales of smartphones hit 1 billion units last year. And it expects sales to hit 1.68 billion by the end of 2017, an increase of nearly 70%.

The continued growth of the mobile wave will help keep semiconductor tech stocks thriving. As for the rest of the tech sector...

Tech Stocks Catalyst No. 2: Merger Mania

For the rest of 2014, I believe mergers and acquisitions (M&A) also will help drive tech stocks higher. Silicon Valley firms are sitting on mountains of cash, meaning they can afford to snap up smaller firms possessing promising technology.

So-called "bolt-on" deals allow the leaders to add product lines or markets while saving money by cutting redundant workers and offices.

According to a recent Moody's Investors Service report, U.S. companies outside of finance were holding $1.64 trillion in cash at the end of 2013. That's up 12% from 2012, the previous record year.

Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, GOOGL), and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) top the list of cash-heavy companies.

And that's why "Big Tech" is leading the deal wave. In recent weeks, for instance, Microsoft completed its acquisition of Nokia Corp.'s mobile manufacturing and services unit - a deal it views as key to its future. Apple, which bought nearly two dozen firms last year, just grabbed a startup that can extend smartphone battery life. And Google, which has been "collecting" robotics firms, just picked up a leading maker of drones.

I expect this kind of deal making to continue for the rest of this year.

Tech Stocks Catalyst No. 3: Biotech Blockbusters

The urge to play "Let's Make a Deal" isn't limited to Big Tech. Big Pharma and biotech outfits will also be playing the M&A game in the year's final six months. And that could help the biotech sector sort itself out after a bear market sell-off in the first part of 2014.

For instance, as I wrote this, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) was still pursuing a $100 billion-plus merger with AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE ADR: AZN).

The recent retreat of biotech stocks from a blistering two-year rally really wasn't about fundamentals.

It was about congressional meddling.

In March, three congressmen told Gilead Sciences Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) Chief Executive Officer John C. Martin in a letter that the company's new hepatitis C drug Sovaldi was "extraordinarily" expensive.

With a sticker price of $84,000 for a full regimen, Sovaldi may seem expensive at first blush. But compare that to the $250,000 cost of a liver transplant, and it's clear the drug is actually pretty cost-effective.

Despite this congressional criticism, Sovaldi racked up a stunning $2.3 billion in first-quarter sales for Gilead.

But the letter from Congress raised the specter of Washington interference and increased regulation. And that was enough to help shove biotech stocks off the cliff.

The sell-off is now overdone, however. A new report from Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS) shows that biotech stocks have been greatly oversold and are poised for a rebound.

Tech Stocks Catalyst No. 4: The Graying of America

The biggest reason for my optimistic view of tech is a surprisingly secular catalyst.

I mean, just think about all those 401(k) accounts being opened and added to each day.

In short, I'm talking about the fact that America keeps getting older.

That means that rivers of cash, most of it retirement money, continues to flow into the stock market, including dozens of top tech stocks.

Just look at the data compiled by Aon Hewitt, a management consultancy that tracks retirement data for 1.3 million people at large corporations. In a recent report, Aon Hewitt found that the portion of new retirement money being invested in stocks has risen to 67%.

Let's put that figure in perspective. In February 2009, just about a month before the bull market began, only 48% of 401(k)s were devoted to stocks. That means long-term stock investing has increased by about 40% in just five years.

And at the end of 2013, the most recent data available, there was at least $5.9 trillion in 401(k) accounts, according to the Investment Company Institute. The trade group says IRA accounts represent an additional $6.5 trillion.

In other words, Americans already have nearly $12.5 trillion socked away in long-term accounts - most of it devoted to stocks.

The steady growth in retirement saving means more and more money is moving into stocks every single day. And that's one reason why - despite sluggish economic growth - the market keeps hitting record highs.

Taken together, these four catalysts should fuel a hefty rebound in U.S.-listed tech stocks in the second half of this year.

How much of your portfolio is devoted to tech stocks? Are you optimistic that tech stocks will rebound in the second half of the year? Share your thoughts on Twitter @moneymorning or Facebook.

Editor's Note: Thanks to innovative moves from CEO Elon Musk, Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) stock has gained a whopping 238% in the past year - and the company is not slowing down.

Now Tesla is engaged in a highly sensitive venture called BlueStar that could disrupt $737 billion of the U.S. economy and impact 98% of the population.

Few details concerning BlueStar have made their way into the press. However, a recent investigation uncovered some shocking revelations.

Click here to continue reading this must-see story...

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Doubling Retirement-Savings Plan Contributions

I'm about to start a new job, and my new employer says I can contribute to a 403(b) and a 457. Can I really contribute to both retirement plans, or do I need to pick one or the other? And what happens if I already contributed some money to my old employer's 401(k) for 2014?

SEE ALSO: Are You Saving Enough for Retirement?

Under a special opportunity available to some public school teachers, health care workers, and other nonprofit and public sector employees, you can contribute up to $17,500 for the year to a 403(b), plus up to $17,500 to a 457. If you're 50 or older in 2014, you can also make catch-up contributions and add an extra $5,500 to both plans. Longer-term employees also have other opportunities to make special catch-up contributions to 403(b)s and 457s; you can find details in this IRS publication.

If you already contributed some money to a 401(k) for the year, however, you'll need to subtract that from your 403(b) limit. But you can still contribute the maximum to a 457, which isn't affected by 403(b) or 401(k) contribution limits. For more information, see the IRS's How Much Salary Can You Defer If You're Eligible for More Than One Retirement Plan?

When you switch jobs in the middle of the year, let your new employer know how much you already contributed to a retirement-savings plan for the year. If you later discover you've contributed too much, your employer must withdraw the excess money (you can't do it yourself) and return it to you as a distribution. If your employer withdraws the extra contributions and earnings before April 15 of the following year (the tax-filing deadline), the extra contributions will be taxed for the year you made the contribution, but the earnings on it will be taxed in the year the excess money was distributed, says Jamie Ohl, president of tax-exempt markets for ING U.S. Retirement Solutions.

If the excess contributions and earnings are withdrawn after the tax-filing deadline, the contribution is subject to double taxation -- that is, it will be taxed in the year that it was deferred and again in the year it is distributed from the plan, says Ohl. Earnings on that money are taxed in the year they are distributed. See the IRS's What Happens When an Employee Has Elective Deferrals in Excess of the Limits? for more information.

It's a good idea to contribute the maximum to both the 457 and the 403(b) if you can afford to do so. In the past, public sector and nonprofit workers tended to use these retirement-savings plans just as a supplement to a generous pension. But many of their employers are cutting back on pensions and retiree health care coverage, so employees have to come up with more money on their own, says Ohl.

Got a question? Ask Kim at askkim@kiplinger.com.



Monday, January 12, 2015

A Low-Cost S&P 500 Index Fund for Investors Looking for Diversified Exposure to U.S. Stocks

On Dec. 31, Ken Fisher (Trades, Portfolio), the chief executive officer and chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, added Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at an average price of $110.19, and is currently holding 902,575 shares of the ETF.

Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)

An ETF is a special type of fund that invests in a portfolio of stocks or bonds. The aim is to mimic the performance of a specified index. As well as the shares, they are traded in the secondary market at any time (market hours) and investors can sell short.

The advantages of this investment vehicle are that they provide an efficient method of diversification because investors gain exposure to an index or a particular sector. Secondly, investors know the composition of the fund at all times. Moreover, as they are a passive managed fund, they have good operating expense ratios.

Obviously there are some disadvantages. We can mention the fewer indices for ETFs to track outside the U.S. or the large bid-ask spread that some ETFs with low trading volume have.

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

The Vanguard 500 Index ETF is managed by Michael H. Buek at Vanguard Group Inc. This fund is one of 67 Vanguard Group Inc ETF. It is a passively managed ETF designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index before fees and expenses, a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is dominated by the stocks of large U.S. companies. Remember that the S&P 500 has become the most popular index that mutual funds and ETFs track.

Returns

The ETF has returned an annual rate of 19.73% since inception. More recently, the fund has generated a total return of 15.31% in the last three years, 27.51% in the last year and 9.22% in the last six months.

Top Ten Holdings

It is best suited for investors looking for diversification across sectors at a low cost. Let's see the fund´s holding list:

Apple Inc (AAPL) 3.21% Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) 2.80% Google Inc (GOOG) 1.97% General Electric Co (GE) 1.80% Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 1.78% Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.62% Chevron Corp (CVX) 1.52% Procter & Gamble Co (PG) 1.40% JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) 1.38% Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)1.38%

Total Percentage of Top 10 Holdings: 18.86%

We can see from the list above that those large cap companies offer significant international exposure.

Return and Volatility Measures – Five Years

For the past five years the regression analysis shows the following: 

Alpha - 0.042% Beta 1.001 R-squared 99.4% Standard Deviation 16.5%

Source: Bloomberg

Let´s explain some concepts:

Alpha - measures the portfolio manager's contribution to performance that is independent of the benchmark. Beta - measures the portfolio sensitivity of its returns on the "market portfolio" of risky assets. R-squared - measures how closely the derived forecast was able to explain the performance of the last five years. Standard deviation - measures how closely actual values matched the forecasted values for performance.

Charges

ETFs require no investment minimum beyond the price of one share. iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV) charges 0.07%, while the largest S&P 500 Index fund, SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), charges 0.09%. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) charges 0.05% and is technically a separate share class of the Vanguard 500 Index mutual fund.

Final Comment

Finishing the year at 1,848, the S&P 500 Index had a 32.39% total return in 2013. So for those investors seeking to invest their money in an ETF with exposure to large cap U.S. equities, the Vanguard ETF is a good option because it offers diversification and has a significantly low expense ratio compared to the average charged by similar funds.

 

Disclosure: Victor Selva holds no position in any stocks mentioned.


Currently 5.00/512345

Rating: 5.0/5 (3 votes)

Email FeedsSubscribe via Email RSS FeedsSubscribe RSS Comments petermaPeterma premium member - 3 hours ago

The article indicated that Fisher purchased the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at an average price of $110.19 on Dec 31, 2013. Wasn't the price closer to $169?

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1 Factor That Could Cause 35% of People to Leave Their Jobs. What About You?

Source: via flickr user woodleywonderworks.

The improving economy is creating more jobs, and that is making more workers confident about their employment situations. A recent Glassdoor employment confidence survey found that more people expect to land a raise this year than did last year, and roughly one-third of them are prepared to head for the exit if that pay increase does not come through.

Gaining the upper hand
The Glassdoor survey, which has been conducted every quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008, found that workers are far less worried about job security than at any other point in the past five years. The percentage of respondents who are concerned they'll be laid off in the next six months sunk from 26% in early 2009 to 13% in the fourth quarter of 2014.

That increased feeling of security reflects overall the nation's consistent job growth since the end of the Great Recession. After peaking at 10% in 2009, the unemployment rate had fallen to just 5.8% as of November 2014.

Employees now feel like they're in control, which could signal a shift in the balance of power away from employers for the first time in years.

That power shift could mean that employers must now think a lot harder about retention, and that employers that have created the consistently best working environments for employees in recent years could benefit from an influx of talent as more workers begin window shopping.

According to Glassdoor, that window shopping is likely to happen if workers don't get a raise. Thirty-five percent of surveyed workers said they would look for a new job if employers don't offer more money this year.

Overall, 43% of surveyed employees said they expect that employers will bump up their pay in 2015 via either a merit-based raise or cost-of-living increase. That's up nearly 10% from the number that expected raises during the recession. College graduates are among the most confident that they'll make more money this year, with 50% expecting a pay increase.

On average, people said they believe their increase will run between 3% and 5%, but 12% of workers think their pay will rise by between 6% and 10% in 2015.

What it means
The Federal Reserve for years has kept interest rates incredibly low because of fears that low inflation rates signal that the nation's economic rebound is fragile, but inflation could climb in the coming year if wage pressures increase. That could translate into a growing willingness by the Fed to tap the brakes on economic growth by beginning to increase rates, which might not be an entirely bad thing. People relying on investment income have seen little benefit from rock-bottom interest rate policies over the past five years, and they would certainly welcome an increase in rates. Banks would also likely benefit from rising rates, which could support lending spreads, particularly if pay increases encourage workers to seek out loans for new cars and homes. Regardless, the biggest beneficiary of this trend would undeniably be workers, as this survey suggests they are likely to have far more, and better-paying, employment options this year than in 2014.

1 great stock to buy for 2015 and beyond
2015 is shaping up to be another great year for stocks. But if you want to make sure that 2015 is your best investing year ever, you need to know where to start. That's why The Motley Fool's chief investment officer just published a brand-new research report that reveals his top stock for the year ahead. To get the full story on this year's stock -- completely free -- simply click here.

 

Saturday, January 10, 2015

4 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

 

 

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

 

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

 

 

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

 

Central European Media Enterprises

 

Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) is a media and entertainment company that operates broadcast, content and new media businesses in central and Eastern Europe. This stock closed up 8.7% to $2.37 in Tuesday's trading session.

 

Tuesday's Range: $2.20-$2.40

52-Week Range: $2.03-$6.85

Tuesday's Volume: 1.48 million

 

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.11 million

 

From a technical perspective, CETV ripped sharply higher here right off some near-term support at $2.17 with above-average volume. This move pushed shares of CETV into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $2.31. This move is also coming off oversold territory, since CETV's current relative strength index reading is 29.39. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if CETV can take out Tuesday's high of $2.40 to some more resistance at $2.53 with high volume.

 

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CETV as long as it's trending above support at $2.17 or at $2.12 and then once it sustains a move or close above $2.40 to $2.53 with volume that hits near or above 1.11 million shares. If we get that move soon, then CETV will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3 to $3.18. Any high-volume move above $3.18 will then give CETV a chance to tag its 200-day at $4.17.

 

Body Central

 

Body Central (BODY) operates apparel stores and also conducts direct business via catalogues and Web site. This stock closed up 3.8% to $3.52 in Tuesday's trading session.

 

Tuesday's Range: $3.40-$3.55

52-Week Range: $3.09-$13.39

Tuesday's Volume: 475,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 421,188

 

From a technical perspective, BODY trended higher here right above some near-term support at $3.21 with above-average volume. This move pushed shares of BODY into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $3.50. This move is also coming off oversold territory, since BODY's current relative strength index reading is 29.89. Oversold can always get more oversold, but it's also an area where a stock can experience a powerful bounce from.

 

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BODY as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $3.21 or at $3.09 and then once it sustains a move or close above Tuesday's high of $3.55 with volume that hits near or above 421,188 shares. If we get that move soon, then BODY will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $4 to $4.50.

 

Pingtan Marine Enterprise

 

Pingtan Marine Enterprise (PME) is a blank check company formed for the purpose of acquiring an operating business that has its main operations in the People's Republic of China. This stock closed up 6% to $3.00 in Tuesday's trading session.

 

Tuesday's Range: $2.57-$3.00

52-Week Range: $1.31-$12.50

Thursday's Volume: 104,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 72,735

 

From a technical perspective, PME ripped higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $2.29 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last month and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $1.46 to its recent high of $3.15. During that uptrend, shares of PME have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of PME within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if PME manages to take out Tuesday's high of $3 to more resistance at $3.15 with high volume.

 

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PME as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $2.29 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 72,735 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then PME will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.63 to $4.20. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give PME a chance to tag $5.

 

MEI Pharma

 

MEI Pharma (MEIP) is a development-stage oncology company engaged in the clinical development of novel small molecules for the treatment of cancer. This stock closed up 2% to $8.05 in Tuesday's trading session.

 

Tuesday's Range: $7.84-$8.13

52-Week Range: $4.37-$13.20

Thursday's Volume: 160,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 135,065

 

From a technical perspective, MEIP spiked modestly higher here with above-average volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last month and change, with shares dropping sharply lower from its high of $12.45 to its recent low of $7.30. During that move, shares of MEIP have been making mostly lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, the downside volatility could be over in the short-term for MEIP if the stock can take out some key near-term overhead resistance levels with volume.

 

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MEIP as long as it's trending above support at $7.50 or at $7.30 and then once it sustains a move or close above $8.40 to its 50-day at $9.01 with volume that hits near or above 135,065 shares. If we get that move soon, then MEIP will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $10 to $10.95.

 

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

 

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

 

RELATED LINKS:

 

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

 

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

 

>>5 Rocket Stocks for Another Week of New Highs

 

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

 

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

 

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


LIVE FROM FPA EXPERIENCE: 'Seller beware' atmosphere means need for new client approaches

Daniel H. Pink Daniel H. Pink

With access to a broad array of investment information, wealth management choices and worldwide communication, clients are gaining the upperhand in their relationship with their adviser.

Traditonally "the seller" has had more information and it's been a "buyer beware" situation, said Daniel Pink, author of "To Sell is Human: The Surprising Truth About Moving Others," at the Financial Planning Association national conference in Orlando on Saturday. New technology is giving more power to the consumer.

"All kinds of markets have gone from those with information asymmetry to a world where consumers have lots of information, lots of choices and lots of ways to talk back," Mr. Pink said. "Now it's seller beware."

Mr. Pink offered advisers a few unconventional tips for bringing today's clients on board and getting them to agree with investments and other decisions that are in their best interest.

For one, he said that actually changing a client's mind on a particular issue or investment matters less than giving them a way to act on particular concerns. Giving clients a way to take a step forward with an investment or other idea may be more fruitful than spending too much time just trying to convince a client to buy into an entire strategy or concept.

When "the facts are on your side," Mr. Pink said, asking clients some suggestive questions often beats providing those answers to clients.

Friday, January 9, 2015

Can Abbott Earnings Climb Without AbbVie?

Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT  ) will release its quarterly report on Wednesday, and investors haven't been entirely comfortable with the company's prospects lately. Even though analysts expect Abbott earnings to grow this quarter, the stock has been under pressure as investors assess the company's future prospects without the branded-pharmaceutical business that got spun off into AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV  ) at the beginning of this year.

Abbott has hoped that the AbbVie spinoff would allow it to concentrate more on other business lines, which include lucrative opportunities in the nutrition, medical-device, diagnostics, and generic-pharmaceuticals spaces. With tailwinds like the aging demographics for populations in the U.S. and throughout the developed world, as well as greater attention to health-care considerations stemming from adoption of the Affordable Care Act, Abbott has a chance to boost profits if it can take full advantage of those opportunities. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Abbott Labs over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its report.

Stats on Abbott Labs

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.52

Change From Year-Ago EPS

136%*

Revenue Estimate

$5.41 billion

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

2.8%*

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

2

Source: Yahoo! Finance. *Adjusted for AbbVie spinoff by subtracting net earnings and revenue attributed to AbbVie in its S-1 filing.

How will Abbott earnings fare this quarter?
In recent months, analysts have been very modestly pessimistic in their views on Abbott earnings, cutting both third-quarter and full-year estimates by a penny per share. The stock has responded more negatively, though, with a 5% drop since mid-July.

Abbott came into the quarter on a fairly positive note, with a 7% rise in adjusted earnings topping expectations even as revenue gains of 2.5% fell short of what investors had hoped to see. The nutritional side of the business performed best, with 17% growth in international sales producing outpaced gains for the segment as a whole. Nutrition makes up more of Abbott's revenue than any other segment. Even relative weakness from medical devices and generic drugs wasn't enough to hold back Abbott too much.

But later in the quarter, investors started looking more negatively at the company. One big hit came in August, when officials in China fined Abbott and recalled some of its infant-formula products over concerns about botulism. The company also faced questions about its pricing structures in China, with regulators looking at whether the high-demand formula industry is taking advantage of customers in the emerging-market nation.

One interesting opportunity for Abbott could come from a possible purchase of Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ  ) Ortho Clinical Diagnostics division. With J&J looking to cash in on an Ortho sale that could bring in $5 billion, Abbott could boost its own diagnostics emphasis and also improve its cash flow by getting in on a deal. Yet some investors are concerned about whether J&J wants more for Ortho than Abbott should pay, especially as the division's revenue has been flat lately. A buy could also help Abbott keep rivals Siemens and Roche at bay.

In the Abbott earnings report, watch to see how the company bounced back from the China problems and how it expects to move forward strategically. With nearly a year under its belt as a slimmed-down company, Abbott should have a better sense now of whether to keep pushing forward with its nutritional blockbuster products or to aim at greater diversification.

How will Obamacare affect Abbott?
Obamacare is rewriting the rules for the health care industry, and in the process of doing so, it's creating massive opportunities for investors to get ridiculously rich. How? By investing in a handful of specific health care stocks. In this free report, our analysts walk you through these opportunities and the companies that are positioned to exploit them. The informational edge contained in it is invaluable, but can only be exploited profitably while the rest of the market remains in the dark. To access this free report instantly, simply click here now.

Click here to add Abbott Labs to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Umpqua Holdings Buys Sterling Financial

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- On Wednesday I profiled 90 publicly-traded community banks in Community Banks With CRE Loan Exposures. My message to these banks is that they should take action to raise capital, trim noncurrent loans or consider merger opportunities.

On Thursday premarket we learned that the Portland, Ore., community bank Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) will acquire the Spokane, Wash., savings and loan Sterling Financial (STSA) in a $2 billion deal.

Sterling is partially owned by private-equity firms Thomas H. Lee Partners LP and Warburg Pincus LLC with both having stakes of about 20.8%.

The deal is a combination of cash and stock valuing Sterling stock at a premium of 26% above its share price of Aug. 30 which was $24.20 and $2.18 in cash. A 26% premium puts the stock at $30.49. According to the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile for the second quarter of 2013 Umpqua Holdings ended the second quarter with $11.79 billion in assets, a commercial real estate (CRE) to risk-based capital ratio of 376.8% and with their CRE loan commitments 55.3% funded. At the end of 2010 Umpqua had $11.67 billion in assets, a CRE to risk-based capital ratio of 423.9% with their CRE loan commitments a stressed out 86% funded. This bank has thus done a good job in reducing CRE exposures and in raising assets. [Read: Will Twitter Sell Its Soul Like Facebook Did?] Umpqua ($16.14) has a hold rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $12.66, which makes the stock 27.5% overvalued with the stock just below its one-year price target at $16.44. The daily chart profile is negative with the stock trading below its 50-day simple moving average at $16.60. My annual and quarterly value levels are $15.37 and $14.18 with a monthly pivot at $16.72 and semiannual risky level at $18.02. According to the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile for second quarter of 2013 Sterling Financial ended the quarter with $9.25 billion in assets, a CRE to risk-based capital ratio of 346.5% and with their CRE loan commitments 68.2% funded. [Read: Expiring Tax Benefits] At the end of 2010 Sterling had $9.5 billion in assets, a CRE to risk-based capital ratio of 349.8% with their CRE loan commitments a stressed out 91.8% funded. This bank has not grown since the end of 2010, but their CRE loan commitment pipeline is better managed.

Sterling ($28.40) has a buy rating according to ValuEngine and a one-year price target at $30.11, just below the deal price. The daily chart profile is positive with the stock well above its 50-day SMA at $26.05. Monthly and quarterly value levels are $25.23 and $24.21 with a semiannual risky level, now a pivot at $28.26. [Read: Wall Street Doesn't Have Dell to Kick Around Anymore]

The daily chart below shows some funky price action going into Aug. 30 and also in the days that followed. The deal was priced off the close of Aug. 30 and the stock was declining going into that day and bottomed that day with a low of $24.02 and close at $24.20. Note the spiky trading pattern that began with a high of $29.76 on Sept. 9, three days before the deal was announced.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters [Read: Not Every Office Lets Fans Fly Their Team Colors] Based upon FDIC data the combined community bank will have assets at about $21 billion and still be overexposed to CRE loans versus the regulatory guideline of 300% of risk-based capital. The overall CRE loan commitment would be considered well-managed. In my opinion this merger is just the first among the 90 focus community banks that I profiled Wednesday. At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @Suttmeier This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

National Pension System Vs PPF: Which is better?

Below is the verbatim transcript of Vaid's interview with CNBC-TV18.

Q: The National Pension System (NPS) is fetching near double-digit returns, which is at least a percentage point higher than what Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) or Public Provident Fund (PPF) offer. Will this trend continue and is it a one year wonder because of the stock market is doing well. How should investors approach the NPS vis-à-vis PPF and EPF?

A: I think NPS is going in a great direction; it is the right direction in which it is going. However, still early days for NPS. They are building their track record in terms of fund management. The basic unique selling point (USP), which NPS provides vis-à-vis other investment options -- accumulation stage of retirement fund, cost of fund management is very low and one do not have that option of accessing that kind of cost anywhere else and those are the advantages, which is reflecting in the performance of underlying NPS. However, when comes the question of comparing EPF, PPF with NPS, it is no-brainer as of now.

Go in for PPF and EPF but keep a watch on NPS and environment will become much clearer in terms of action once the new tax regime, which has been talked about comes out in which the exempt-exempt-tax regime, which one has been looking forward to, comes then the situation becomes slightly different. However, as of now it's in favour of EPF, PPF but keep a watch on NPS.

Q: Should you compare the NPS to some of the mutual funds because that is where the tax treatment seems to be more aligned?

A: That is right; NPS should be compared with mutual funds because money is being managed by some of the same fund managers under the asset management company structure itself. As I mentioned earlier, the cost is one big advantage in favour of NPS. The cost being paid is very low, it is one of the lowest cost of managing retirement point in the world is in India and that is they have done very well.

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